James Montier resource page with a huge collection of articles and Prior to that , he was the co-Head of Global Strategy at Société Générale and has been the. James Montier, GMO. James is a member of GMO’s Asset Allocation team. Prior to joining GMO in , he was co-head of Global Strategy at Société Générale. I met James Montier at a value investment seminar in Italy in Montier ride again motions James Montier leaving Societe Generale to.
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James wrote that fifteen stocks in the U. James Montier presents even more evidence that humans cannot forecast and why you should avoid listening to anyone who says he can as well as avoid it yourself.
An enormous amount of evidence suggests that investors are generally hopeless at forecasting.
Be sure to add it to your RSS reader. The problems experienced by the quant funds in August may help highlight some of these issues. We respect your privacy no spam ever. At the link above you can read parts of the book at Google Books.
James Montier Resource Page
It creeps into almost every discussion on finance. Its a great summary of a lot of his previous work in a presentation format, summarised in bullet points and graphs. The answer in general is no but they can be improved by learning to look for evidence that disagrees with us, and seek to disprove our ideas, rather than illustrate them with supportive evidence.
James Montier explains why the efficient markets theory is dead but still lives because of academic inertia.
The Evolutionary Foundations of Heuristics and Biases James Montier in December writes that a catalogue of biases that cognitive psychologists have built up over the last three decades seem to have stem from one of three roots — self-deception, heuristic simplification including affectand social interaction.
The credit for this page goes to my colleague and friend, Tim. James Montier, in his usual style puts himself against the common view saying that the then biggest consensus portfolio bets to him seemed to be small cap and low quality however large cap, high quality looks like the better bet to him.
In this paper James explores the evolutionary basis of each of these roots. Give it a try! Never Miss A Story! We all make mistakes when we make decisions. The list below gives a top ten list for avoiding the most common investment mental pitfalls. He gave me permission to post on Value Walk. He also found that many investors suffer the curse of knowledge and end up either picking zero or severely underestimating the irrationality of other players.
It follows the standard pattern of a bubble deflating, some thing that we have seen a thousand times before. However, the overwhelming psychological evidence suggests that if you put good people into bad situations they usually turn bad. We had long discussions later the day and into the evening on value investing and investment egnerale. James Montier writes about the whether company visits are useful for fund managers. To assess which comes closest to describing the current market.
Here he comes up with a collection of his best books in different categories classics, modern, psychological general hidden gems that is arguably the best reading list for any aspiring investor. If nothing fit the criteria for investing, then cash was the default option. Value plus quality seems to make sense. But most importantly, humility should be the central theme of a good investment process.
Unfortunately James decreased his writings since taking a position with the asset manager GMO in It makes no sense to forecast, the importance of a margin of safety, avoid trying to time the market and buy cheap insurance. Investors could move up and down the capital structure from bonds to equities as they saw fit.
Montier quits SocGen for hedge fund
James was kind enough to put me on his distribution list and I really looked forward to each of his articles as they always taught me something. Our minds are montire for solving problems related to our survival, rather than being optimised for investment decisions. So using forecasts as an integral part of the investment process is like tying one hand behind your back before you start. He found, unsurprisingly, that only a very small minority shows the required level of strategic thinking to beat the gun.
He identifies shorting candidates societee a measurement called the M score. I met James Montier at a value investment seminar in Italy in where he presented. Although, James Montier does not have his own fund, he has valuable information. Subscribe to ValueWalk Newsletter. James Montier makes a strong argument that the mess in the US economy and housing market was not caused by a black swan event unpredictable but rather was sadly predictable.
In the article he explains a simple short screen with surprising results shown through back testing in the USA and Europe. In November article genfrale Only White Swans on the Road to Revulsion James Montier makes the argument that that the housing bubble and the crisis following its collapse was not an unforeseen event but rather the result of over optimism and the illusion of control, two classic human behavioural mistakes.
The details of each bubble are different but the general patterns remain very similar. In the article The psychology of bear markets published in Decemberduring the brunt of the bear market James Montier writes about that the mental barriers to effective decision-making in bear market s are as many and varied as those that plague rationality during bull markets but that they more pronounced as fear and shock limits logical analysis.
James Montier | Value Invest
He also gives a few short ideas from his shorting screen. The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How right he was. Lessons from behavioural finance and for corporate governancewrote at the end of January James Montier says even though it is tempting to believe bad behaviour is the result of a few rotten individuals. He also touches on the propensity for commentators to continually proclaim the end of the problem and a resumption of business as usual.
Montier quits SocGen for hedge fund | Reuters
We evolved in a very different environment, and it is that ancestral evolutionary environment that governs the way in which we think and feel.
And them he goes on to systematically take the model apart with real life examples and evidence. Past results are impressive in identifying under-performing companies.